Modern russian tank 155mm9/21/2023 ![]() Limited Ukrainian counterattacks have reclaimed small areas around the city and, as of publication, we assess that the risk of encirclement and destruction or capitulation of Ukrainian forces there has receded. The Kremlin’s Donbas campaign-which has focused on massing Russian troops and firepower around Severodonetsk in an attempt to capture the strategically vital city-appears to have slowed to a halt. As Russia sends more conscripts to support the Donbas campaign, Ukraine will focus on reinforcing logistical supplies and moving ground-based systems to the front lines. The race to resupply troops at the frontlines remains the linchpin for military success on both sides. Russia’s campaign in the Donbas region is reaching a standstill, with its numerical advantage in forces and fires effectively countered by Ukraine’s tactical employment of battlefield intelligence. While the transfer of US high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS) and British multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) will help Ukraine, we assess that the amount of systems and ammunition planned for transfer in the first tranche will only have a minor impact in the fighting. The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied here are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of the Department of Defense or any other US government agency. ![]() In light of the ongoing Russia crisis, the Scowcroft Center’s Forward Defense (FD) practice will share weekly assessments of the latest force developments surrounding Ukraine, leveraging the expert perspectives of our senior military fellows.
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